Wait now, don’t pay later: How consumers are being trained not to buy games when they launch

In addition, over 60% of all playtime in 2023 — a year broadly recognised as one of the best in a decade for new releases — was focused on games launched over six years ago.

That’s right: Fortnite, Grand Theft Auto 5, Call of Duty and Minecraft beat out major hits like Diablo 4, Bauder’s Gate 3 and Legend of Zelda Tears of the Kingdom in terms the time gamers spent playing on them last year.

Now we know: You can launch the world’s best video game, but it won’t pull people away from virtual Ariana Grande concerts and dance parties with guns in Fortnite.

In addition, 90% of the industry’s revenue was generated by just 43 games — out of the thousands that were released last year.

That means, based off last year’s figures, if you develop a game you have less than 3% chance of it becoming a runaway commercial success. Possibly less given the majority of successes are big budget sequels. Crazy.

However, there is something that relates to this that the report fails to mention; the consumer dynamic underpinning some of these figures.

Unlike just about any other industry driven by hype, the gaming sector is training its consumers not purchase new titles at launch through a maze of business models and perverse incentives.

Here’s how:

• Digital games are now generally cheaper after launch: There are very few titles that hold their value after launch. The rise of digital distribution has made it easier for a publisher to discount their games in order to boost sales. Purchasing at launch is usually the most you will pay.
• This wasn’t always the case. When games were primarily sold via retail as opposed to digital distribution, games were actually their cheapest at launch. Retailers would generally take a loss and discount games on launch day to drive foot-traffic into their store. The price would then increase to recommended retail price (RRP) a few days later, and would typically remain at this price until it went on clearance. This is still the case with physical copies of games, but as the majority of game purchases are digital downloads, it isn’t as influential on overall sales.
• You now don’t have to buy a new game to play something new. There are plenty of subscription services across all platforms that charge less than Netflix on a monthly basis and provide a steady stream of free – but older – games to play. This makes it harder to justify the spend on a new game, which can cost upwards of five-times the monthly subscription cost for just one title.
• New games are now often at their worst at launch: Games at launch are no longer a finished product. If you bought and played through Baldur’s Gate 3 — Game of The Year for 2023 — at launch and finished it within a month or two of its release (a realistic timeframe for a 60-80 hour game) you would have missed the epilogue chapter released in a later update. Yes, this encouraged a lot of players to go on another 80-hour journey and beat the game for a second time; but it made more sense to release it at launch. The trend appears to be, the longer you wait before purchasing a game the more value you get out of it.
• The industry’s current solution: Launch a title with enough hype that consumer feel driven to play the game at launch — something that sequels or established IP have an advantage with compared to other games.

This isn’t just an observation on my part.

This dynamic actually played out with Immortals of Aveum — a new shooter released last year on the PS5.

Lacklustre initial sales saw the studio layoff 45 per cent of its staff, only to see interest in the game pick up well after launch. Now, after heavy discounting and a later release via Playstation’s subscription platform is the title starting to see some commercial success.

So why does this matter?

Nobody wants gaming industry where everything is a sequel or everything is Fortnite. And beyond that, this dynamic is leading to employment issues for those developing games. And that’s in an industry that’s already notorious for sketchy job security.

Perhaps this is further fuel for the argument that all games should be released via a subscription service rather than sold as standalone titles — a move Microsoft has been pioneering with the Xbox Game Pass.

What’s so surprising however, is that 2023 should have been a year marked by the release of some of the best games the world has ever seen.

But its left a somber mark on the industry as the gaming sector attempts to piece together why an industry in its prime — making more money than both film and music combined — still isn’t firing on all cylinders.

• Harrison Polites writes the Infinite Lives newsletter. Follow him here.