Why this futurist believes entrepreneurs need think to 2040 to succeed when launching a startup

With a new year, ripe with possibilities, underway, Swinburne entrepreneurship expert Bridgette Engeler is urging small business owners and aspiring entrepreneurs to think beyond 2025 to set themselves up for future success.

“Everyone is probably thinking about the coming 12 months,” she says.

“But what’s on the radar beyond that? Is your business future-fit? You should be thinking about 2030 or even 2040.

“It’s easy to get stuck in short-term thinking and focus on current trends but it’s longer-term thinking that actually helps you innovate and stay ahead. Instead, you can think like a futurist and get ready for 2025 while anticipating possibilities for decades to come.”

As a professional futurist, Engeler knows thinking about the future allows us to imagine the kind of future we want and how we can get there. And she says the same applies to business, especially if you’re thinking about founding something in 2025. 

“Startup founders face the same challenges as more established small and medium enterprises (SMEs): changes in society and economy, market readiness, digitalisation, supply chain, climate crisis and scarcity of raw material,” she said.

“Research shows that a lack of long-term thinking and strategy in SMEs is a significant threat, because those changes are too profound to be addressed solely through the reactive measures that many startups and SMEs typically rely on for survival.

“Whether you’re thinking about starting a business or already running one, it’s almost automatic to just focus on the now – securing funding, scaling operations, or tackling immediate problems. But the key to sustained success lies not just in reacting to the present but in anticipating what’s next.

“Sure, the business landscape seems uncertain. Markets shift, regulations change, technology evolves, and customer expectations can vary extensively but that’s the landscape and we shouldn’t expect certainty. Jamais Cascio says we’ve moved from VUCA (Volatile, Uncertain Complex and Ambiguous) to BANI (Brittle, Anxious, Nonlinear and Incomprehensible). BANI is a more relevant way to explain the chaotic changes in our environment, society, technologies, businesses, and politics. And it’s not just a description – it acknowledges how we’re feeling and supports ways we can respond. 

“Without foresight, businesses risk being blindsided by disruptions. Entrepreneurs who incorporate foresight into their strategic thinking, however, can ‘use the future’ to mitigate risks, pivot with resilience and transition sustainably.

“There’s a cavalcade of examples of businesses big and small that ignored early signals of change and while some faltered (and halted), others survived (and thrived). What made the difference was the ability and courage to look to the longer term.  So how do you do this?

“Remember that the future starts now. Every action we take in the present shapes what happens next and down the track. Start by embracing a mindset of curiosity and openness to change.”

Here’s Engeler advice on how to be prepared for what lies ahead.

Look around you regularly and watch what’s on the horizon 

Pay attention to emerging trends, new technologies, and shifts in people’s needs, attitudes and behaviour. Explore beyond your immediate sector or industry through reports, podcasts magazines and books 

Don’t just stick to and follow the current trends. Entrepreneurs and innovators who can spot change early can evaluate opportunities and ready themselves for an emerging market sooner

Imagine alternative futures

There is no one singular future. The only fact we have about the future is that it doesn’t exist. So thinking like a futurist isn’t about predicting one singular future but exploring multiple different scenarios.

What if a major supplier goes out of business? How might climate change regulations affect your supply chain? What laws or standards will change over the next few years that will affect what you do now and how can you prepare for that?

Scenario thinking encourages flexibility and helps you shift your perspective beyond ‘business as usual’.

It’s a bit like playing chess—you’re always considering your next move based on the potential moves of others. And if you think I’m being ridiculous, cast your mind back to 2022.

Engage with the people who buy and use your product or service 

Sometimes, the signals of change are right in front of you. Spend time with the people who matter.

Foresight isn’t just about technological or economic trends; it’s about people and what’s important to them.

Make sure you’re focusing on a real issue or preventing one over time. Don’t add to the list of products looking for a problem to solve. 

Build a resilient mindset

Foresight involves confronting uncertainty head-on, which can be daunting. But having a resilient mindset means uncertainty becomes an opportunity rather than a threat. When you plan for multiple futures, unexpected challenges become less intimidating—they’re simply another scenario you’ve prepared for.

Where to start

Engeler’s advice is simple and age old – start anywhere but just start.

“No matter where you are or what you are doing, the next few weeks are the ideal time to set time aside to step back, reflect, and imagine.

Here’s how:

• Read Widely: Look for books, articles, or podcasts that explore the broader world. Consider topics you wouldn’t normally and expand your knowledge and your imagination.
• Network Casually: Strike up conversations with people you meet. People from different industries or countries can offer fresh perspectives and different insights.
• Daydream Strategically: Doodle, play games, build in the sand. Let your mind wander and see new things. Sketch out possible futures for your business. Look back at what has changed and what hasn’t and use that to imagine where you and your industry might be in five or ten years.
• Observe New Markets: If you’re traveling, pay attention to how things are done differently in different cultural or economic contexts. You may spot opportunities that haven’t yet reached your home market yet.

“So how do you reframe your thinking to be long term?” Engler said.

“There’s no time machine for this just a commitment to thinking ahead, exploring possibilities, and embracing change. Whether you’re on a break or making the most of quieter time in the office, cultivating a forward-looking mindset can transform how you approach opportunities.

“Entrepreneurs who integrate foresight into their strategies gain more than a competitive edge—they build businesses that are adaptable, innovative, and ready for the future. By scanning the horizon, imagining multiple scenarios, learning from people, and cultivating resilience, you are building your future-fitness and will be readier for our uncertain world.

Engeler recommends reading/listening/watching for entrepreneurs and business owners that aren’t just generic inspiration.

“Why read another business book about stuff you know and know you need to do (and maybe aren’t doing!)?” she said.

“If you’re tired of reading business books on your holidays – or you want to avoid the same-old-same-old lists you see everywhere, you might need something to spark your imagination and drive innovation.”

Her recommendations include: 

• The Creative Act: A Way of Being – Rick Rubin
• Siliconned: How the tech industry solves fake problems, hoards idle workers, and makes doomed bets with other people’s money – Emmanuel Maggiori
• From What Is to What If: Unleashing the Power of Imagination to Create the Future We Want – Rob Hopkins
• The Uncertainty Mindset – Vaughan Tan
• Future Cultures – Scott Smith and Susan Cox-Smith
• Limits to Growth – Donella H. Meadows, Dennis L. Meadows, Jørgen Randers, William Behrens III

• Find out more about BANI here.
• FuturePod podcast series futurepod.org

Over the Summer break, she also read and recommends:

• Machines Behaving Badly: The Morality of AI – Toby Walsh
• The Big Con – Mariana Mazzucato and Rosie Collington
• War and Wheat : Navigating Markets During Global Conflict – Dennis Voznesenski

To cultivate a beginner’s mind, Engeler says it’s important to be curious and try something different every day.

“Experiment and play with ideas, then set yourself a goal, work towards it without needing everything to be perfect. Don’t let your inner voice dissuade you but be willing to unlearn and relearn,” she said.

“If you have an idea, do something about it – you don’t have to launch a new product or service immediately, but you should explore the possibilities before someone else does.”